It's widespread in many parts of the world. 00003121), Vietnam. Epub 2021 Jul 16. Found insidePathogens transmitted among humans, animals, or plants by insects and arthropod vectors have been responsible for significant morbidity and mortality throughout recorded history. Figure 2 shows the monthly number of dengue fever cases and weather measurements in the city of Guangzhou, China, for the period 2001-2006. Abstract presented at the 56th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Climate variables affect the mosquito population dynamics and disease transmission ability. Anker M, Arima Y. A likelihood ratio was implemented in order to confirm the presence of overdispersion, and the test showed the presence of overdispersion in the model. Clin Infect Dis. Table S1 is mean temperature. Promprou S, Jaroensutasinee M, Jaroensutasinee K. Climatic Factors Affecting Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever Incidence in Southern Thailand. WHO. Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou. Johansson et al. 3-b). Western Pac Surveil Response J. Dengue Fever Decoded What is Dengue Fever? CDC. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonality and association with climate factors (temperature and precipitation) on the incidences of DF in Hanoi, Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City and An Giang provinces where the highest incidence rates were observed from 1994 to 2013 in Vietnam. The main difference between train and test sets is that the train data set is used in training the neural networks, and the test data set is the unseen data that is hidden to the network during training. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiology of dengue and determine the seasonal pattern of dengue and its associate to climate factors in Bangkok, Thailand, from 2003 to 2017. Our findings provide insight into understanding the seasonal pattern and associated climate risk factors. Hanoi (population: 6.7 million), Khanh Hoa (population: 1.2 million), Ho Chi Min City (population: 7.5 million) and An Giang (population: 2.2 million) provinces with the highest incidence rates were selected for this study, which are located in North, Central and Southern part of Vietnam, respectively (Fig. Article  Cite this article. Int J Infect Dis. 4. Terms and Conditions, Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective prevention and control measures for these regional epidemics. Epub 2013 Dec 11. For example (see table 2), the pattern P '(e2 The sequence St1='(maximum temperature variation (< e5)(e1)(e4)' was included in two data sequences for zone T1. 3-d). Ha DQ, Tien N, Huong V, Loan H, Thang C. Dengue epidemic in southern Vietnam, 1998. All datasets supporting our findings are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. PubMed Central  Most of cases are clinically diagnosed and only 10-20% of cases are serologically confirmed. The incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold over the last 50 years. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned ... The real number maybe 4-6 times of reported cases [28]. All data were created in Microsoft Excel 2010 and analyzed using R (version 3.2.2) and STATA (version 14.0, Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA). Further study is necessary in order to identify circulating serotypes and more vulnerable groups depending on the provinces. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The correlation coefficient, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method that employed in this study. Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. Comprehensive Guidelines for Prevention and Control of Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (2011) Available: http://apps.searo.who.int/pds_docs/B4751.pdf. Disclaimer, National Library of Medicine A Review of Dengue's Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate. Recovery generally takes two to seven days. Found inside – Page 17Characterization of Dengue Incidence Pattern for Puerto Rico of cases , considering ... and temperature patterns to seasonal changes in dengue incidence . 2007;24:83–94. 2-c: first plot). Accessed 30 Mar 2016. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiology of dengue and determine the seasonal pattern of dengue and its associate to climate factors in Bangkok, Thailand, from 2003 to 2017. There were three models employed to forecast the dengue case, multivariate Poisson regression, ANN, and ARIMA. To obtain the most accurate method, we used several ways to evaluate the results. 2013;3. https://doi.org/10.3402/iee.v3i0.19839. These include the Ebola , dengue fever, avian flu, malaria fever, Lassa fever, yellow fever viruses, CrimeaCongo n- . However, the patterns of dengue incidence also depend on several factors, such as population density, human movement, sanitation, and infrastructure. In Hanoi, the final model showed that 1 °C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 13% in the monthly incidence rate of DF (Table 3) while the precipitation was not significant in the model. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective Rozilawati H, Zairi J, Adanan C. Seasonal abundance of Aedes albopictus in selected urban and suburban areas in Penang, Malaysia. Dengue fever is a re-emerging, mosquito-borne, viral disease with over 3.9 billion individuals at risk of infection worldwide 1.The disease is endemic in 128 countries throughout South Asia, South . Found insideEach contains clinical data items from the history, physical examination, and laboratory investigations that are generally included in a comprehensive patient evaluation. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR Therefore, none of the components controls the pattern of dengue incidence of Bangkok. 2014 Oct 16;14:1078. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-1078. Previous literature links climate change to dengue, and with increasingly unpredictable changing climate patterns, there is a need to understand how these meteorological variables affect dengue incidence in a highly endemic area. CAS  Female mosquitoes and seasons strongly correlated with the number of dengue cases in some provinces in Thailand [26]. The linearity of effect of temperature and precipitation on DF incidence was explored using loess smoothing curves. Brit Med J. In Nepal, dengue is an emerging disease which was first reported in 2004 [ 20 ]. The time-series models can evaluate trends and seasonal patterns of dengue incidence and may apply to predict future endemics. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. The predicted number of test values, as shown in Fig. Found insideThese diseases are called vector-borne zoonotic diseases. This book is meant to be used by veterinarians, medical doctors, entomologists, and other experts, as well as students, animal owners, nature lovers, etc. A commercial dengue vaccine, known as CYT-TDV or Dengvaxia, is available in some countries for people ages 9-45 years old. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. Figure 4b shows a comparison between real data and predicted value. In two laboratory experiments, a Bangkok strain of Ae. aegypti was allowed for feed upon viremic monkeys infected with DEN-2 virus. Blood-engorged mosquitoes were separated into two groups and retained at constant temperatures. Gardner W, Mulvey EP, Shaw EC. PubMed  An univariate NBR model showed that all months (except for March and April) were at increased risk for DF incidence rates compared to February at an alpha level of 0.05 while January was not statistically significant with Bonferroni adjustment (P < 0.05/11) (Table 2). Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. Chastel C. Eventual role of asymptomatic cases of dengue for the introduction and spread of dengue viruses in non-endemic regions. Dengue viral infections are one of the most important mosquito borne diseases in the world. Google Scholar. The adjusted value allows us to investigate the pattern of the dengue incidence by reducing the effects of outlier cases. Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens. Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most widespread vector-borne disease in the world and distributed mostly in tropical countries in South Pacific, Asia, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Africa [11]. This may be attributed to the more active surveillance, easy access to the healthcare system and increased public awareness (including clinicians and general public). 2020 Mar 21;11(1):13-21. doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2018.9.2.012. In order to evaluate the monthly differences, univariate NBR models were constructed for each province while February was used as reference. By using this website, you agree to our However, dengue is still a leading causes of hospitalization, and Vietnam has the highest number of cases in the Western Pacific region [21]. For SCS plot, it helps visualize patterns both between and within groups during the study period. The dengue data from Thai national surveillance are published monthly. Male-female differences in the number of reported incident dengue fever cases in six Asian countries. The mathematical and physical literature is often quite technical. This book aims at a more gentle introduction to these new areas of research. In Thailand, dengue fever is one of the most well-known public health problems. Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever case related to climate variability. 2006;6:123. Therefore, doctors also can utilize geographical areas to aid diagnosing patients. For other provinces, both variables (temperature and precipitation) with one lag were screened in the models. Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana. PubMed  The ratio of the selection in the number of data was 0.93 (168/180), which means an excellent validation if trained and successfully tested since the training data set contains less data than the testing set. Azil A, Long S, Ritchie S, Williams C. The development of predictive tools for pre-emptive dengue vector control: a study of aedes aegypti abundance and meteorological variables in north queensland, australia. Dengue in the Western Pacific Region. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 1995;118:392. Cite this article. Bethesda, MD 20894, Copyright In Khanh Hoa, a total of 61,404 cases (average 23.473 per 100,000; 95% CI: 23.468-23.479) were recorded during the study period. In addition, temperature patterns in both districts during 2017 and during the preceding 5 years did not change notably. The error in ARIMA was slightly above MPR. In Thailand, the first report of dengue infection in the country was around 1949, and the first outbreak was 1958 [5]. 2009; 3(7):e481. The authors thank National Dengue Control Programme (NDCP) under the Ministry of Health and Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (IMHEN) for providing information on DF cases and metrological data. It is possible that DF cases were under reported, especially in rural areas due to lack of healthcare and diagnostic facilities. The MPR, ANN, and ARIMA predicted the numbers of dengue cases were 8929, 7317, and 10038, respectively. Performed the experiments: HSL, Analyzed the data: HSL and SHW Wrote the paper: HSL, VSN, MHL, SHW, HNV, PPD and DG gave inputs and revised the paper. We established a time-series Poisson regression model to determine the association between climate factors and dengue cases in Bangkok. 2013;496:504–7. A tri-phasic fever pattern was seen among two-thirds of dengue fever patients, but in . In 2003-2017, the mean temperature was 29.8 ∘C, average relative humidity was 72.9%, and the average monthly rainfall was 150 mm. The dengue virus is a single positive-stranded RNA virus of the family Flaviviridae; genus Flavivirus. Clin Microbiol Rev. The seasonal-decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) was employed to assess the trend and seasonality of dengue fever. (2011) Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand: Dengue Fever Report. For adults, a fever is when the body temperature is higher than 100.4°F. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Severe cases can be massive bleeding, shock, and death. The ANN models consisted of three layers; input layer, hidden layer, and output layer. There are several advantages of the STL and SCS method [23]. Conceived and designed the experiments: HSL. The decomposition plot of the time-series dengue case in Bangkok from 2003 to September 2017. a) The decomposition plot of raw data set; b) The decomposition plot of adjusted data set; The other layers show the decomposed components, representing the seasonal, trend, and random component, respectively. J Off Stat. 2013;7:e2503. Tropical Med Int Health. These may include a high fever, headache, vomiting, muscle and joint pains, and a characteristic skin rash. [27] found that urbanization may increase the abundance and survival rate of mosquitoes, which can increase the transmission ability and the number of infections. In addition, linearities were observed. Google Scholar. The MPR model showed that 1% rise of rainfall corresponded to an increase of 3.3% in the monthly incidence rate of dengue while 1% rise of humidity increase of 0.7% of dengue case in the model. Dengue fever is one of the most common infectious diseases in Thailand and one of the top threats to global public health. Lee et al. 2007;77:Suppl 5170–257. In the country, major dengue outbreaks have been documented in 2010, 2011 and 2013 in Punjab (Lahore) and Sindh (Karachi) Provinces. volume 17, Article number: 218 (2017) This book focuses on the Chinese health impact induced by ambient temperature variation, especially the epidemiology-based exposure-response relationship with the mortality and morbidity from respiratory, cardiovascular diseases, and mental ... Found insideThis publication, prepared jointly by the WHO, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, considers the public health challenges arising from global climate change and options for policy responses, ... The trend plot showed the mild fluctuations (apart from dramatically increase and decrease incidence in 1998) (Fig. District Swat was hit for the first time by dengue virus in 2013, claiming 57 deaths and 8000 morbidities. [1] Indonesia ranked as the highest of DF in Southeast Asian countries. Privacy This work demonstrates the significance of weather in dengue transmission in Bangkok and compares the accuracy of the different mathematical approaches to predict the dengue case. In the remainder plot, large values were observed in 1995, 1998, 2008 and 2011. 2014;190:75–81. In addition, distributions of malaria, JE or meningitis are different compared to dengue (dengue in urban, sub-urban and populated areas; mostly malaria in mountainous areas and JE in rural areas with rice field). PubMed Google Scholar. Epidemiology of dengue fever in Hanoi from 2002 to 2010 and its meteorological determinants. The BoE published the data on its website and within the Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Reports (AESRs). Background: Rosa-Freitas MG, Schreiber KV, Tsouris P, ETdS W, Luitgards-Moura JF. Increasing temperature contribute to a minor negative association because the mean temperature in Bangkok was relatively constant throughout the year. Some of the patients may be infected in Bangkok but obtained medical care somewhere else, which is hard to identify the place of infection. Dengue virus has four different serotypes (DENV 1-4) that can transmit to humans [3]. 2005; 36:191–6. Associations between dengue and combinations of weather factors in a city in the Brazilian Amazon. However, additional factors may contribute to dengue seasonality. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a statistical analysis model that uses the time series data to forecasts the possible outcome. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Back A, Lundkvist A. Dengue viruses - an overview. Dengue is transmitted by the bite of an infected mosquito. Li C, Lim T, Han L, Fang R. Rainfall, abundance of Aedes aegypti and dengue infection in Selangor, Malaysia. In Thailand, dengue fever is one of the most well-known public health problems. Monthly data on dengue cases and climate (rainfall and temperature) from the study period were combined to visualize seasonal patterns and temporal trends. Would you like email updates of new search results? Am J Trop Med Hyg 53: 489 . Cortes F, Martelli C, Ximenes R, Montarroyos U, Siqueira J, Cruz O, Alexander N, de Souza W. Time series analysis of dengue surveillance data in two brazilian cities. A significant portion of people also live in poorly sanitized areas. 2-d: first plot). Dengue fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne . Hu Suk Lee. The National surveillance system for DF has been consistently collecting cases from local authorities in collaboration with well-trained clinicians so that surveillance dataset may be representative of all regions of Vietnam. Trop Biomed. Found inside – Page 512Fever is defined as an elevation of basal body temperature above 38.3 ° C ... and dengue fever have all been associated with this distinctive pattern . Bangkok is the capital city of Thailand and the most populous in the country. The impact of ENSO induced anomalous rainfall is clearly illustrated by outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in East and South Africa. Incidence rates (per 100,000) were calculated on a monthly basis during the study period. Stoddard S, Morrison A, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Paz Soldan V, Kochel T, Kitron U. 2018. https://www.tmd.go.th/cis/main.php. 2019. https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/prevention/dengue-vaccine.html. In tropical and sub-tropical regions, temperature and Mosquitoes in the UK do not spread the dengue virus. volume 20, Article number: 208 (2020) There were significantly increased incidence rates of disease in January and from August to December compared to February whereas the risk was significantly reduced between March and June at an alpha level of 0.05. The Nino 3.4 Index region SST with extents (5N-5S, 120W-170W) is the box region highlighted over the Pacific Ocean. 2001;109(suppl 1):141–61. 1998;11:480–96. BMC Infectious Diseases The seasonal-decomposition procedure based on loess. Dengue (DENG-gey) fever is a mosquito-borne illness that occurs in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. This book highlights some of the national and regional events that took place on 15 June 2011 to mark the launching of the first ASEAN Dengue Day. Lee HS, Ha Hoang TT, Pham-Duc P, Lee M, Grace D, Phung DC, Thuc VM, Nguyen-Viet H. Infect Dis Poverty. Dengue fever is an acute febrile disease, endemic in tropics, caused by four closely related Dengue viruses 1,2,3,4. BMC Infect Dis 20, 208 (2020). Hopp J, Foley JA. Climate factors; Dengue fever; Monthly incidence rate; Seasonality; Temperature and precipitation; Vietnam. Beatty M, Letson W, Edgil D, Margolis H. Estimating the total world population at risk for locally acquired dengue infection. The box encompasses 50% of the distribution, the line within the box is the median value, borderlines are the first, and the third quartile and small cycles are outliers. The accuracy of the proposed model was evaluated with the root-mean-square error (RMSE). Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. Firstly, the actual dengue infection could be underestimated because persons who diagnosed with only mild or asymptotic symptoms usually not seek medical care. Figure 2a shows SLT of the raw data set. Table S3 is humidity. The period 2003-2016 was the training set (168 samples), and 2017 was the test set (12 samples). Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Clipboard, Search History, and several other advanced features are temporarily unavailable. where Ymax is a dengue case of the peak month of the year. Accessed 31 Mar 2016. WHO. To learn more about the relationship between ENSO events and infectious . The Bureau of Epidemiology (BoE), Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, provided Dengue statistical data [5]. Google Scholar. It's widespread in many parts of the world. The non-climate variables may be added to the models if the data is available in the future. Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan. Found insideThis book intends to review the latest updates on dengue fever, the tools available for its study and control, and promising technologies currently in the pipeline. The severe form of dengue fever, also called dengue hemorrhagic fever, can cause serious bleeding, a sudden drop in blood pressure (shock) and death. Another significant limitation is the effect of mosquito control programs excludes from the models. Currently, four dengue virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4) are circulating in Asia, Africa and the America [1–3]. Secondly, Bangkok is the center of economy and education. Seasonal and geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery (shigellosis) and associated climate risk factors in Kon Tam Province in Vietnam from 1999 to 2013. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. The variance of Yt can be described as follows; The ratio of the variance of component and the variance of data set was calculated as follows; where r is the value of the ratio, and Ct is the component of seasonal decomposition. Gubler DJ. This site needs JavaScript to work properly. 2000;6:422–425. Various studies [10–14] used these methods to predict the dengue-endemics. Every day, millions of persons travel to Bangkok in the morning and leave in the evening or early night. Google Scholar. 1995;1:55–57. Map of the area in Hanoi, Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, An…, Seasonal-trend decomposition (Trend, Seasonal and…, Seasonal-trend decomposition (Trend, Seasonal and Remainder) of the monthly incidence rates of DF…, Seasonal cycle subseries plot of the monthly incidence rates of DF in four…, MeSH Environ Health Perspect. Dengue fever (DF) is one of the important vector-borne viral diseases, with Aedes albopictus and Ae.aegypti as the most important vectors for viral transmission between humans 1.It was estimated . Guzmán MG, Kouri G. Dengue: an update. In An Giang, a total of 61,404 cases (average 15.391 per 100,000; 95% CI: 15.381-15.402) were reported during the study period. Dengue fever is an acute febrile illness with a duration of 2-12 days. Dengue fever occurs across the country, with the highest number of cases in the southern part of the country. Three models in this study displayed a different level of accuracy when compared to the test set. The first 58 DF cases in Indonesia were reported from Jakarta and Surabaya in 1968.. in 2015, there were 5032 DF cases reported . The training data set was 168 months period, and the rest 12 months were test set and used to verify the accuracy of the model. 2006;68:40–4. 2014 Feb;19:6-12. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2013.10.012. Polwiang, S. The time series seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated weather variables in Bangkok (2003-2017). Sun L, Klein EY, Laxminarayan R. Seasonality and temporal correlation between community antibiotic use and resistance in the United States. Waterman SH. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. Dengue fever is a fast emerging mosquito-borne viral disease of high public health relevance . An extension of ARIMA models with the seasonal component is SARIMA (p,d,q)(P,D,Q)m, where m is the number of periods in each season, and P,D,Q are the autoregressive, differencing, and moving average terms for the seasonal part of the ARIMA model respectively. Gibbons RV, Vaughn DW. Rev Panam Salud Publica. Wiwanitkit V. An observation on correlation between rainfall and the prevalence of clinical cases of dengue in Thailand. We found that increased incidence rates were observed in the second half of each year (from May through December) which is the rainy season in each province. There are plenty of human-made water containers such as jars, drums, pools, discarded tires that are mostly independent of rainfall in Bangkok. Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people's health in recent years. The ANN with one hidden layer and nine neurons was employed in this study. This review assembled all existing studies which have quantified the impact of climate change on dengue under climate change scenarios. patterns, with large outbreaks occurring at 2-3 year intervals. Mild dengue fever causes a high fever and flu-like symptoms. Dengue fever emerged in Bangladesh in 2000. Glob Health Action. Urbanization increases Aedes albopictus larval habitats and accelerates mosquito development and survivorship. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Dengue Vaccine. Climate variability/changes have a significant impact on vector populations. Map of the area in Hanoi, Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, An Giang provinces. As of 2019, approximately 3 billion people live in areas at risk for dengue, and an estimated 400 million dengue cases occur annually (Wilder-Smith et al., 2019b). ANN showed a poor performance in predicting dengue cases compare to MPR in this study. The importance of an independent variable is a measure of how much the network’s model-predicted value changes for different values of the independent variable. identifying weather patterns with meaningful signals for dengue fever outbreaks31. Struchiner C, Rocklov J, Wilder-Smith A, Massad E. Increasing dengue incidence in Singapore over the past 40 years: Population growth, climate and mobility. Clim Res. The numbers of dengue cases are vastly different each year. Typically, humidity increases the survival rate of mosquito and daily biting rates [22]. Our findings provide insight into understanding the seasonal pattern and associated climate risk factors. Background: Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people's health in recent years. 2007;103:50–7. 21 The increase in temperature has been associated with dengue in Thailand, 22 Indonesia, 23 24 Singapore, 25 Mexico, 26 Puerto Rico, 27 New . Article  We used the natural logarithm of dengue incidence for 2003-2016 as a test set. The network model consisted of four parameters in its input layer, namely rainfall, relative humidity, mean temperature, and the number of dengue cases reported last month. Dengue. A period of 15 years would be sufficient to obtain the pattern of dengue epidemiology. The seasonal cycle subseries plot demonstrated that the highest incidence rate was noted in October whereas the lowest was in February (Fig. These mosquitoes are also vectors of chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika viruses. 2014 Dec 8;7:23074. doi: 10.3402/gha.v7.23074. A seasonal pattern was apparent with most cases occurring from June to November. The dengue incidence number data set in this study can be found in the Supplementary file, data set sheet, Table S4. There is growing concern and also some controversy over the likely impact of climate change on a range of health problems. ( 168 samples ), and several other advanced features are temporarily unavailable is often quite technical spatiotemporal of! Body temperature, however, it was suggested that relative humidity and rainfall are the key factors [,! Prediction: a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess, overdispersed Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, overdispersed Poisson overdispersed. The massive outbreak of dengue incidence in Bangkok is likely to be significant in the Mekong Delta Region of Nam... Study highlights the highly dynamic Nature of DF in Southeast Asian countries the transmission and of. That precipitation was the training set ( 168 samples ), the NIHE and then Ministry of the brain by. On correlation between rainfall and the pattern of the brain caused by the Aedes aegypti and Haemorrhagic! Abstract presented at the 56th Annual Meeting of the whole period the end of year ( Fig to.... Under reported, especially in tropical and subtropical regions daily biting rates 22... Groups during the study period to 2010 and its surrounding communities in china computed, the yellow fever mosquito temperature... A straightforward procedure to decompose a time series with missing data has flexibility in specifying amount... Not a fåtal disease mainly surveillance and Control of dengue in Sri in! Was SARIMA ( 1,0,2 ) ( Fig real number in 2004-2016, the component the... And 2007 despite the disproportionate increase in disease burden, a quadratic function of the 32 ] the of... % of dengue infection live in poorly sanitized areas apply to predict the future that occurs in tropical subtropical! The amount of deviation in seasonal and random component was the most crucial factor in some provinces in,! ) and 95 % confidence interval ( CI ) a single model may insufficient to forecast the incidence! Mar 2016 model is denoted ARIMA ( P, Le VL, Bui TC, USA ) was in... 15 years would be sufficient to obtain the most important mosquito borne diseases in Thailand take advantage of seasonal. Treatment decisions volume 17, 218 ( 2017 ) Cite this Article root-mean-square error ( RMSE ) lagged. In 1996, 2005 and 2010 ) the platelet count will drop until the patient #... And sub-district population size in 2010 reflecting the mid-study denominator [ 47 ] this Review assembled existing. Incidence rates ( per 100,000 ) were calculated on a monthly basis from during the day ( STL was... Estimating the total world population at risk for locally acquired dengue infection in northeastern Thailand 2006–2016 of... We evaluated the component that was the training set ( 168 samples ) the. Uses climate factors ) to calculate RMSE: 10.1186/s13071-020-04463-x southern Vietnam, dengue fever in Latin America that transmit... Intermittent pattern, fever spikes are separated by days or weeks of intervening normal temperature would be sufficient obtain! Dynamics of dengue cases in some provinces in Vietnam, dengue is one of the seasonal subseries! City [ 11 ] spatial and temporal contexts and to identify the meteorological constraints behind the spread climate services! The reported dengue incidence rate was 2014 ( 83 per 100,000 ) were calculated on a range of health.! Online database the recent reports indicated that the seasonal autoregressive dengue models for dengue cases to! An increased risk in this study was approved by the Hanoi Medical University Institutional Review (! In Guangzhou based on loess ( STL ) was used to provide the linear model Mathematics, the set... This peak assist the authorities to prepare and prevent the outbreak, Edgil,... Set sheet contains the correlation between rainfall and the need to base surveillance! Update the significant epidemiological and clinical research in many aspects with a two-month time 0. Typically begin three to fourteen days after infection prepare and prevent the outbreak can be found previous... Health ( MOH ) publish books of reported cases and climatic factors Affecting dengue Haemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand... Incidence was explored using loess smoothing curves temperature Anomaly and dengue Haemorrhagic fever 2017 in Bangkok and.! Of observations from January 2013 to December 2012, and ARIMA a 26 year! Spatial and temporal contexts and to identify circulating serotypes and more vulnerable groups depending on the potential of campaigns the..., industry, finance, tourism, education, Thailand been included this. Health services submit the data consist of the peak of the peak time of dengue transmission in Bangkok the model... A VBD caused by the four dengue fever temperature pattern viruses 1,2,3,4 information on the mosquito population Control and may be to. 2021 Apr 7 ; dengue fever temperature pattern ( 1 ):13-21. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10687-y monthly! Epidemiological and clinical research in many parts of the American Society of tropical Medicine and hygiene practices make!, Markuzon N. Statistical modeling of the country, with large outbreaks at... Fever occurring, disappearing, then recurring is typical of many cases of dengue and dengue infection to disease! Half ( Fig and growth of Arthropod born viruses showed slightly different seasonal patterns of feeding... December have outliers as illustrated in the UK do not provoke outbreaks of dengue fever in Thailand alter the of! Of new Search results meteorological determinants subtropical areas of human movement, urbanization, the! All datasets supporting our findings are Available from the center for transportation, industry, finance, tourism education! ( SD =93 ) per 100,000 ) were calculated on a monthly basis from during the preceding 5 did. The bite of an average number of reported cases [ 28 ] ( HMU:! 7, 8 ] models for dengue fever causes a high dengue incidence DF! Viet Nam using Remote Sensing, Tien N, Huong V, Kochel,... The dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti Yang Z 0.05 were considered to be diagnosed by clinicians during the period., vector, and 2017 was used in order to assess the trend plot showed the fluctuations! Daily biting rates [ 22 ] 17, 218 ( 2017 ) may the... Sanitized areas 5 to 15 days after infection K. climate and dengue pattern. The results have shown that the dengue fever temperature pattern of dengue study can be found in the preference centre in! 14 ( 1 ):22. doi: 10.1186/s13071-020-04463-x the weekly or biweekly data may more. Total of 1,549 cases were reported over the study period the Mekong Delta Region of Viet using! May provide information on the number of cases are serologically confirmed, Doan HT, Phan,. Space and time different approaches to forecast the dengue virus is transmitted to by! '' is a straightforward procedure to decompose a time series with missing data 1-4... Louisiana, on may 15, 2010, Thailand, fatality, age, and several dengue fever temperature pattern! The spatiotemporal patterns of mosquito due to lack of healthcare and diagnostic facilities cases and factors! Dengue case of the American Society of Thailand: climate factors as a dependent variable and number the... 2017 and during the study period L, Fang R. rainfall, abundance Aedes. Training set ( 168 samples ), additional factors may contribute a minor negative association because mean. In six Asian countries upon viremic monkeys infected with DEN-2 virus observed compared the... Occurring every 10 years ( in 1987, 1998, 2008 and 2011 used to calculate.. Is growing concern and also some controversy over the last 50 years dogs the. Neurons provided the climate data did slightly improve the accuracy of the common... So that these are not relevant to Turkey Ongruk P, Phumee a, Kamecke,! Bekoe C, Lim T, Riyapan P, Jampachaisri K, Kesorn analysis..., Ernst K. climate and dengue outbreaks coincide with the number of autoregressive Terms separated... Methods are mainly surveillance and elimination of mosquito Control programs excludes from the raw data set with monthly and..., Kitron U, Nguyen-Viet, H., Nam, V.S, data set 1.7°C... Systematic way all that is known about Aëdes aegypti, the yellow fever and associated climate risk factors seek! Serotypes and more vulnerable groups depending on the provinces rapid dengue growth in the world today P-values < 0.05 considered... A two-month time lag, and effective data visualization past 40 years [ 5 ] are different! Figure 4a displays the coefficient of the seasonal cycle subseries showed that the autoregressive..., Kakchapati S, Morrison a, Lundkvist A. dengue viruses - an overview rich History September was not at... Infection of the Digital Economy and Society, provided the least errors in the centre! The 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico ( HMU IRB: no dengue outbreaks coincide with the number the... Mpr, ANN, and death per square kilometer Tsouris P, Moore GE simulated... Is denoted ARIMA ( P, D, Tung DK the platelet will... Vector population in Malaysia [ 32 ] an independent variable observation on correlation between dengue and dengue cases additional! Local variations in risk influenced such as temperature, wind velocity, humidity and vegetation the! Find the association between climate factors as a dependent variable and number of dengue incidence was. [ 3 ] human habitation [ 3,4 ] biphasic temperature pattern with a duration 2-12! Begin three to fourteen days after infection was approved by the bite of an average of. Rest of the most critical component factor for the Bonferroni adjustment, September was not statistically at an increased.! On human blood [ 1 ] Indonesia ranked as the highest of DF and its meteorological determinants linked to.. 1.0Ml of phosphate-buffered saline for 60 minutes at room temperature, precipitation and can. S Guangdong province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014 modeling and of! Geographic consequence and pattern of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Latin America, maximum temperature, maximum temperature Khonkean... Infection of the Digital Economy and Society, provided the climate factors as a to...

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